移民问题：20 万亿美元商业的人力因素(英文 32页)

this is a time of great global adversity. Since the start of 2022, the world has witnessed an ongoing pan-demic, stagflation, supply-chain breakdowns, acceler-ating climate change, and environmental degradation, all amid geopolitical fractures and war. As a result, millions of people have moved across borders. Some fled to secure their safety, escaping border conflicts, social persecution, and climate-related calamities such as floods and droughts. Others left home in search of economic, cultural, and educational opportunities for themselves and their families. Today, more than 280 million people—3.6% of the global population—live in countries other than where they were born.1 Taken together, migrants globally would form the fourth-largest country in the world by population size. Moreover, more people are open to migrating if given the opportunity; over 50% of workers are willing to take up jobs abroad, according to a recent BCG survey.2

From a macroeconomic lens, cross-border migration currently generates an annual economic output of around $9 trillion.3 Using a set of plausible yet conservative assumptions, BCG estimates that the direct economic output of migration could more than double by 2050, to around $20 trillion a year.4 Moreover, in developed countries with aging populations, the political desire and fiscal necessity to keep dependency ratios stable could lead to even higher levels of migration.5

Migration is not only essential for future economic welfare but also presents a substantial opportunity today. Business is currently suffering from unprecedented labor shortages across skill levels, especially in industries such as digital technology, health care, education, trade, and construction. According to a BCG study of 30 countries, above-average labor shortages today cost business more than $1 trillion  a year. That’s over $3 billion a day—or more than 1%  

of global economic output.6 In addition to alleviating such pressing labor shortages, foreign talent can drive  innovation7 and thus provides companies that embrace  it with a substantial strategic advantage. 

Even though the economic case is clear, business has yet to move. According to a recent BCG survey covering 850 executives in ten countries, 95% of private-sector leaders see the value of working with global talent, and 80% take some actions to capture that value; however, only 5% of them do so in a consistent manner that yields financial impact. To address this apparent gap between aspiration and action, this Brief will share more than 20 operational levers, illustrated with best practices from global corpora-tions, which allow companies to benefit from migration and protect the rights of migrants. To do so, business can, and must, deploy three strategies to employ, elevate, and embrace migrants in the workplace and beyond:  

1. Develop a global talent strategy. A common starting point is to employ foreign-born workers to staff hard-to-fill roles or cover short-term needs. Businesses can access fresh pools of talent by adopting new language norms, globalizing their hiring, using new recruitment platforms to discover overlooked talent, and allowing for more remote operations.

2. Deploy a global innovation strategy. This strategy drives value by harnessing the cognitive variety of glob-ally diverse teams that are often more creative when solving complex innovation challenges. Companies can adopt this strategy by creating migration networks within their organizations, setting up externship programs, and championing differences to spark creativity that, when supported by the right operational levers, will boost and elevate innovation.

3. Stand for global human rights. Migration needs corporate allies that will embrace and protect migrants’ rights before, during, and after migration while ensuring business practices are aligned with international labor standards. To improve policymaking, business leaders should participate in forums and share the benefits, opportunities, and challenges of global migration. They can lead by expressing their support for the principles outlined in the UN Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration, and by partnering with govern-ments and civil-society organizations to establish secure and dignified migration paths. Business engagement strengthens the governance structures that protect and safeguard the rights of migrants, and is vital to develop more sustainable and legal migration pathways. 

这是一个充满全球性不利的时代。 2022年伊始，全球大流行、滞胀、供应链断裂、气候变化加速、环境恶化、地缘政治断裂、战乱不断。 结果，数百万人跨越国界。 一些人逃离是为了确保他们的安全，逃避边界冲突、社会迫害和与气候有关的灾难，如洪水和干旱。 其他人离开家乡为自己和家人寻找经济、文化和教育机会。 如今，超过 2.8 亿人（占全球人口的 3.6%）生活在出生地以外的国家。1 全球移民加在一起将构成世界上人口规模第四大的国家。 此外，如果有机会，更多人愿意移民； 根据 BCG 最近的一项调查，超过 50% 的工人愿意到国外工作。 2

从宏观经济的角度来看，跨境移民目前每年产生约 9 万亿美元的经济产出。 3 波士顿咨询公司使用一组看似合理但保守的假设，估计到 2050 年，移民的直接经济产出可能翻一番以上，达到约 20 万亿美元 4 此外，在人口老龄化的发达国家，保持抚养比稳定的政治愿望和财政必要性可能导致更高水平的移民。 5

移民不仅对未来的经济福利至关重要，而且在今天也提供了大量机会。 目前，企业正遭受前所未有的各种技能水平的劳动力短缺，尤其是在数字技术、医疗保健、教育、贸易和建筑等行业。 根据 BCG 对 30 个国家/地区的研究，如今高于平均水平的劳动力短缺每年给企业造成的损失超过 1 万亿美元。 每天超过 30 亿美元——或超过 1%

全球经济产出的 6。除了缓解这种紧迫的劳动力短缺外，外国人才还可以推动创新 7，从而为企业提供拥抱它具有巨大的战略优势。

尽管经济形势明朗，但企业尚未采取行动。 根据 BCG 最近对 10 个国家的 850 名高管进行的调查，95% 的私营部门领导者看到了与全球人才合作的价值，并且 80% 的人采取了一些行动来捕捉这种价值； 然而，只有 5% 的人以产生财务影响的一致方式这样做。 为了解决愿望与行动之间的这一明显差距，本简报将分享 20 多个运营杠杆，并以全球公司的最佳实践加以说明，这些杠杆使公司能够从移民中受益并保护移民的权利。 为此，企业可以而且必须采用三种策略在工作场所及其他领域雇用、提升和拥抱移民：

1. 制定全球人才战略。 一个共同的出发点是雇用外国出生的工人担任难以填补的职位或满足短期需求。 企业可以通过采用新的语言规范、全球化招聘、使用新的招聘平台发现被忽视的人才以及允许更多的远程操作来获取新的人才库。

2.部署全球创新战略。 该战略通过利用全球多元化团队的认知多样性来推动价值，这些团队在解决复杂的创新挑战时通常更具创造力。 公司可以通过在其组织内创建迁移网络、设置实习计划和支持差异来激发创造力来采用这一战略，在正确的运营杠杆的支持下，这些创造力将促进和提升创新。

3. 维护全球人权。 移民需要企业盟友在移民前、移民期间和移民后拥护和保护移民的权利，同时确保商业行为符合国际劳工标准。 为改进政策制定，商界领袖应参与论坛并分享全球移民带来的好处、机遇和挑战。 他们可以带头表达对联合国安全、有序和正常移民全球契约中概述的原则的支持，并与政府和民间社会组织合作建立安全和有尊严的移民路径。 企业参与加强了保护和维护移民权利的治理结构，对于开发更可持续和合法的移民途径至关重要。

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