凯捷：能源的未来(英文 64页)

The Future of Energy

本文的目的是提出我们对能源行业在未来20至30年内将如何发展的看法。我们有目的地选择此时间范围，因为对2040年和2050年的预测将为战略计划的制定留出充裕的时间，同时也抓住了围绕气候变化的必要紧迫感

Table of Content

1. Placing a bet 8

1.1. “Island summer” 10

1.2. “California Dream” 12

1.3. “Alabama song” 14

1.4. “Emerald Clean” 16

1.5. “Green Expectations” 18

1.6. “Resourceful as Ever” 20

2. Multiverse Energy 22

2.1. Context 24

2.1.1. Energy demand 24

2.1.2. Climate change: CO2 pricing and global climate governance 25

2.1.3. Energy sector and data regulation/deregulation 27

2.1.4. Reducing energy and waste: sufficiency, efficiency, high tech, and low tech 28

2.1.5. Fossil fuels versus renewables mix 30

2.1.6. Rare earth / metals constraints mitigation 32

2.2. Deep technologies 34

2.2.1. Renewables technologies 34

2.2.2. Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) 36

2.2.3. Nuclear 37

2.2.4. Storage and flexibility 38

2.2.5. Hydrogen (H2) 39

2.2.6. Grid 40

2.2.7. Superconductivity 41

2.2.8. Mobility 42

2.2.9. Customer changes 43

2.2.10. New usages 45

2.3. Digital technologies 46

2.3.1. IoT 46

2.3.2. Cloud 48

2.3.3. AI, RPA, and IA 48

3. An intricate techno-digital landscape supporting and provoking disruption 52

3.1. The distributed energy world 54

3.2. Integrative smart grids 56

3.3. Hybrid farms / VPP 58

3.4. “My energy my way” 59

3.5. The electric vehicle / infrastructure ecosystem 59

Conclusion 62

Recommended reading 63

About this report 

Growing energy demand, as driven by population growth,  “energy for all” initiatives and economic development, has led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions. As sustainability becomes a orldwide concern, our industry must ask: How can advances in technology, policy change and behavior modification help solve this issue? 

The purpose of this paper is to present our perspective on how the  energy industry is expected to evolve over the next 20 to 30 years. We choose this timeframe with purpose, as projections for 2040 and 2050 allow ample time for the development of strategic plans while also capturing the necessary sense of urgency around climate change.

In preparing this report, we based our thinking on three widely accepted projections: 1. The world population will increase by 1.7 billion by 2040, mostly in urban areas; 2. Energy demand will increase by more than a quarter by 2040; and 3. The world at large is unlikely to meet the objectives set forth in the 2015 Paris Accord or similar energy agreements. 

Advances in energy-related technologies combined with the digital revolution is expected to lead to significant change in how energy markets are operated. In addition, ongoing geo-political evolution, including the United States’s emergence as the leading oil and gas producer, China’s position as the worldwide energy leader, and ongoing volatility in the Middle East, will unquestionably influence the shaping of the future of energy.

While this report focuses on the energy future for select countries and regions, our analysis is intended to be applied more broadly. This study offers a global perspective on how the energy landscape may be influenced by the advent of new technology, shifting consumer behavior and political change.  

This study is Capgemini’s latest piece of research conducted on behalf of our clients and partners. Additional efforts include: 

• World Energy Markets Observatory (WEMO), an annual report examining the electricity and gas markets in Europe, United States, Canada, Australia, China, India, and Southeast Asia. The document presents a current picture of the energy market and outlines transformation trends.

• Strategies for energy players, client projects that analyze the energy market and define the business strategy for the next three to five years.

关于本报告

在人口增长，“全民能源”倡议和经济发展的推动下，不断增长的能源需求导致温室气体排放量增加。随着可持续发展成为全球关注的问题，我们的行业必须问：技术，政策变更和行为修改方面的进步如何帮助解决此问题？

本文的目的是提出我们对能源行业在未来20至30年内将如何发展的看法。我们有目的地选择此时间范围，因为对2040年和2050年的预测将为战略计划的制定留出充裕的时间，同时也抓住了围绕气候变化的必要紧迫感。

在编写本报告时，我们的思想基于三个被广泛接受的预测：1.到2040年，世界人口将增加17亿，其中大部分将出现在城市地区； 2.到2040年，能源需求将增长四分之一以上； 3.整个世界不太可能达到2015年《巴黎协定》或类似能源协议中规定的目标。

能源相关技术的进步与数字革命相结合，有望导致能源市场的运作方式发生重大变化。此外，持续的地缘政治演变，包括美国已成为领先的石油和天然气生产国，中国作为全球能源领导者的地位以及中东的持续动荡，无疑将影响能源未来的格局。

尽管本报告着重于某些国家和地区的能源未来，但我们的分析旨在更广泛地应用。这项研究为新技术的出现，消费者行为的转变和政治变革如何影响能源格局提供了一个全球视野。

这项研究是凯捷（Capgemini）代表我们的客户和合作伙伴进行的最新研究。其他工作包括：

•世界能源市场观察站（WEMO）年度报告，审查了欧洲，美国，加拿大，澳大利亚，中国，印度和东南亚的电力和天然气市场。该文件介绍了能源市场的当前情况，并概述了转型趋势。

•能源参与者的战略，分析能源市场并确定未来三到五年业务战略的客户项目。

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