全球电动汽车电池供应链报告(英文 68 页)

 Global supply chains of EV batteries 

Executive summary

Batteries typically accounts for 30% to 40% of the value of an electric vehicles (EV), and the race to net zero will focus attention on the security of supply of the critical minerals and metals needed to manufacture them.  

Electric car sales continued to break records in 2021, testing the resilience of battery supply chains 

Few areas in the world of clean energy are as dynamic as EV markets. In 2021, EV sales broke new records, with nearly 10% of global car sales being electric, four times their market share in 2019. Public and private spending on EVs doubled relative to 2020. More and more countries have pledged to phase out ICEs or have ambitious electrification targets. Five times more EV models were available in 2021 relative to 2015, and most major carmakers are announcing plans to further accelerate electrification of their fleets.  

China accounted for half of the growth of the EV market in 2021. More vehicles were sold in China in 2021 (3.3 million) than in the entire world in 2020. Sales in Europe continued to grow robustly (up 65% to 2.3 million) after the 2020 boom, and they increased in the United States as well (to 630 000) after two years of decline. The first quarter of 2022 showed similar sales trends. 

Today’s battery and minerals supply chains revolve around China 

China produces three-quarters of all lithium-ion batteries and is home to 70% of production capacity for cathodes and 85% for anodes (both are key components of batteries). Over half of lithium, cobalt and graphite processing and refining capacity is located in China. Europe is responsible for over one-quarter of global EV assembly, but it is home to very little of the supply chain apart from cobalt processing at 20%. The United States has an even smaller role in the global EV battery supply chain, with only 10% of EV production and 7% of battery production capacity. Korea and Japan have considerable shares of the supply chain downstream of raw material processing, particularly in the highly technical production of cathode and anode material. Korea is responsible for 15% of global cathode material production capacity, while Japan accounts for 14% of cathode and 11% of anode material production. Korean and Japanese companies are also involved in the production of other battery components such as separators. 

Most key minerals are mined in resource-rich countries such as Australia, Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and handled by a few major companies. Governments in Europe and the United States have bold public sector initiatives to develop domestic battery supply chains, but the majority of the supply chain is likely to remain 

Chinese through 2030. For example, 70% of battery production capacity announced for the period to 2030 is in China. 

Battery and minerals supply chains will have to expand ten-fold to meet government EV ambitions 

The rapid increase in EV sales during the pandemic tested the resilience of battery supply chains, and Russia’s war in Ukraine has further exacerbated matters with prices of raw materials such as cobalt, lithium and nickel surging. In May 2022, lithium prices were more than seven times higher than in early 2021 due to unprecedented battery demand and a lack of sufficient investment in new supply capacity. Meanwhile, Russia supplies 20% of global high-purity nickel. Average battery prices fell by 6% to USD 132 per kilowatt-hour in 2021, a slower decline than the 13% drop the previous year. If metal prices in 2022 remain as high as in the first quarter, battery packs would become 15% more expensive than they were in 2021, all else being equal. However, the relative competitiveness of EVs remains unaffected given the current oil price environment. 

Pressure on the supply of critical materials will continue to mount as road transport electrification expands to meet net zero ambitions. Demand for EV batteries will increase from around 340 GWh today, to over 3500 GWh by 2030 in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS). Cell components and their supply will also have to expand by the same amount. Additional investments are needed in the short-term, particularly in mining, where lead times are much longer than 

for other parts of the supply chain – in some cases requiring more than a decade from initial feasibility studies to production, and then several more years to reach nominal production capacity. Projected mineral supply until the end of the 2020s is in line with the demand for EV batteries in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). But the supply of some minerals such as lithium would need to rise by up to one-third by 2030 to satisfy the pledges and announcements for EV bateries in the APS. For example, demand for lithium – the commodity with the largest projected demand-supply gap – is projected to increase sixfold to 500 kilotonnes by 2030 in the APS, requiring the equivalent of 50 new average-sized mines. 

There are other variables affecting demand for minerals. If current high commodity prices endure, cathode chemistries could shift towards less mineral-intensive options. For example, lithium iron phosphate cathode chemistry (LFP) does not require nickel nor cobalt, but comes with a lower energy density and is therefore better suited for shorter-range vehicles. LFP share of global EV battery supply has more than doubled since 2020 because of high mineral prices and technology innovation, primarily driven by an increasing uptake in China. Innovation in new chemistries, such as manganese-rich cathodes or even sodium-ion, could further reduce pressure on mining. Recycling can also reduce demand for minerals. Although the impact between now and 2030 is likely to be small, recycling’s contribution to moderating mineral demand is critical after 2030. In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE), demand grows even faster, requiring additional demand-side measures and technology innovation. Today’s corporate and consumer preferrence for large car models such as sports utility vehicles (SUVs), which account for half of all electric models available globally and require larger batteries to travel the same distances, is exerting additional pressure. 

Ensuring secure, resilient and sustainable EV supply chains will be key to accelerating global uptake 

Electrifying road transport requires a wide range of raw materials. While all stages of the supply chain must scale up, extraction and processing are particularly critical due to long lead times. Governments must leverage private investment in sustainable mining and ensure clear and rapid permitting procedures to avoid potential supply bottlenecks. 

Innovation and alternative chemistries that require smaller quantities of critical minerals, as well as extensive battery recycling, can ease demand pressure and avoid bottlenecks. Incentivising battery “rightsizing” and the adoption of smaller cars can also decrease demand for critical metals. 

Governments should strengthen cooperation between producer and consumer countries to facilitate investment, promote environmentally and socially sustainable practices, and encourage knowledge sharing. Governments should ensure traceability of key EV components and monitor progress of ambitious environmental and social development goals at every stage of battery and EV supply chains. 

摘要

电池通常占电动汽车 (EV) 价值的 30% 至 40%，而实现净零的竞赛将把注意力集中在制造它们所需的关键矿物和金属的供应安全上。

2021年电动车销量继续破纪录，考验电池供应链弹性

世界上很少有清洁能源领域像电动汽车市场那样充满活力。 2021 年，电动汽车销量打破新纪录，全球近 10% 的汽车销量为电动汽车，是 2019 年市场份额的四倍。与 2020 年相比，电动汽车的公共和私人支出翻了一番。越来越多的国家承诺逐步淘汰 ICE 或有雄心勃勃的电气化目标。与 2015 年相比，2021 年的电动汽车车型数量增加了五倍，大多数主要汽车制造商都宣布了进一步加速其车队电气化的计划。

中国占 2021 年电动汽车市场增长的一半。2021 年中国的汽车销量（330 万辆）超过了 2020 年的全球销量。欧洲的销量继续强劲增长（增长 65% 至 230 万辆） 2020 年的繁荣，并且在经历了两年的下降之后，它们在美国也有所增加（达到 63 万）。 2022年第一季度显示出类似的销售趋势。

中国主宰着今天的电池和矿产供应链

中国生产了所有锂离子电池的四分之三，拥有 70% 的正极产能和 85% 的负极产能（两者都是电池的关键部件）。超过一半的锂、钴和石墨加工和精炼能力位于中国。欧洲负责全球超过四分之一的电动汽车组装，但除了 20% 的钴加工之外，它的供应链很少。美国在全球电动汽车电池供应链中的作用更小，电动汽车产量仅占 10%，电池产能仅占 7%。韩国和日本在原材料加工下游供应链中占有相当大的份额，特别是在技术含量高的正极和负极材料生产方面。韩国占全球正极材料产能的 15%，而日本占正极材料产量的 14%，负极材料产量的 11%。韩国和日本公司也参与了隔膜等其他电池组件的生产。

大多数关键矿产都在澳大利亚、智利和刚果民主共和国等资源丰富的国家开采，并由少数几家大公司经营。欧洲和美国政府有大胆的公共部门举措来发展国内电池供应链，但大部分供应链可能会保留

中国到 2030 年。例如，宣布到 2030 年期间的电池产能的 70% 在中国。

电池和矿物供应链将不得不扩大十倍以满足政府电动汽车的雄心

疫情期间电动汽车销量的快速增长考验了电池供应链的韧性，而俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争进一步加剧了钴、锂和镍等原材料价格的飙升。 2022 年 5 月，由于前所未有的电池需求和新供应产能投资不足，锂价格比 2021 年初高出 7 倍以上。与此同时，俄罗斯供应了全球 20% 的高纯度镍。到 2021 年，平均电池价格下降 6% 至每千瓦时 132 美元，降幅低于前一年 13% 的降幅。如果 2022 年的金属价格保持与第一季度一样高，那么在其他条件相同的情况下，电池组的价格将比 2021 年高出 15%。然而，鉴于当前的油价环境，电动汽车的相对竞争力仍然不受影响。

随着道路运输电气化扩大以实现净零目标，关键材料供应的压力将继续增加。在宣布的承诺情景（APS）中，电动汽车电池的需求将从今天的 340 GWh 左右增加到 2030 年的 3500 GWh 以上。电池组件及其供应也必须扩大相同的数量。短期内需要额外的投资，特别是在采矿业，其交货时间远高于

对于供应链的其他部分——在某些情况下，从最初的可行性研究到生产需要十多年，然后再过几年才能达到标称生产能力。预计到 2020 年代末的矿产供应符合既定政策情景 (STEPS) 中对电动汽车电池的需求。但到 2030 年，锂等一些矿物的供应量需要增加多达三分之一，才能满足 APS 对电动汽车电池的承诺和公告。例如，预计到 2030 年，亚太地区对锂的需求——预计供需缺口最大的商品——将增加 6 倍，达到 500 千吨，相当于 50 个新的平均规模矿山。

还有其他变量会影响对矿产的需求。如果当前商品价格居高不下，阴极化学品可能会转向矿物密集度较低的选择。例如，磷酸铁锂阴极化学 (LFP) 不需要镍或钴，但能量密度较低，因此更适合短程车辆。自 2020 年以来，由于矿产价格高企和技术创新，LFP 在全球电动汽车电池供应中的份额增加了一倍以上，这主要是受中国日益增长的推动。新化学物质的创新，例如富锰阴极甚至钠离子，可以进一步减轻采矿压力。回收利用还可以减少对矿物的需求。尽管从现在到 2030 年的影响可能很小，但回收利用对缓和矿物需求的贡献在 2030 年后至关重要。在 2050 年净零排放情景 (NZE) 中，需求增长更快，需要额外的需求侧措施和技术创新.如今，企业和消费者对运动型多功能车 (SUV) 等大型车型的偏好正在施加额外的压力，这些车型占全球所有电动车型的一半，并且需要更大的电池才能行驶相同的距离。

确保安全、有弹性和可持续的电动汽车供应链将是加速全球普及的关键

电气化公路运输需要广泛的原材料。虽然供应链的所有阶段都必须扩大规模，但由于交货时间长，提取和加工尤为关键。政府必须利用私人投资对可持续采矿进行投资，并确保明确和快速的许可程序，以避免潜在的供应瓶颈。

需要较少量关键矿物以及广泛的电池回收的创新和替代化学品可以缓解需求压力并避免瓶颈。鼓励电池“调整规模”和采用小型汽车也可以减少对关键金属的需求。

各国政府应加强生产国和消费国之间的合作，以促进投资，促进环境和社会可持续的做法，并鼓励知识共享。政府应确保关键电动汽车零部件的可追溯性，并在电池和电动汽车供应链的每个阶段监测雄心勃勃的环境和社会发展目标的进展情况。

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