新烟草产品禁令（TPD)对欧盟潜在的经济影响

新烟草产品指令 - 潜在的经济影响2013

2012年12月下旬，欧洲委员会通过了一个新的烟草产品指令（TPD） -建议的提案，有可能显着影响烟草部门和欧盟的经济，菲利普莫里斯国际公司已委托罗兰贝格管理咨询（采购经理人指数），以评估新的TPD的潜在经济影响。在我们的研究中，我们分析了影响新TPD对整个烟草部门和欧盟成员国的经济方面的两个关键参数：在这样的就业和税收，我们专注于新的包装和标签要求的影响导致高水平的标准化，细长型卷烟的禁令，禁止薄荷香烟添加剂的限制。我们认为，这三项措施，可能有最显着的，可量化的影响。有潜在的额外就业和税收的影响尚未量化作为这项研究的一部分，我们的研究试图与经济建模标准的做法是一致的。我们采用一个全面的，定量的经济模式，使我们能够模拟在烟草行业的未来发展

THE NEW TOBACCO PRODUCTS DIRECTIVE – POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT2013

In late December 2012, the European Commission adopted its proposal for a new Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) – a proposal that has the potential to significantly impact the tobacco sector and the EU economy.

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants has been commissioned by Philip Morris International (PMI) to assess the potential economic impact of the new TPD. In our study, we analyze the impact of the new TPD on the entire tobacco sector and EU Member States' economies in terms of two key parameters: Employment and tax revenue

In doing so, we focus on the impact of the new packaging and labeling requirements leading to high levels of standardization, the ban on slim cigarettes, and the ban on menthol cigarettes resulting from restrictions on additives. We view these three measures as likely to have the most significant, quantifiable impact. There are potential additional effects on employment and tax revenue which have not been quantified as part of this study.

Our study attempts to be consistent with standard practice in economic modeling. We adopt a comprehensive, quantitative economic model that allows us to simulate future developments in the tobacco sector.

Table of Contents 

Foreword 2

Executive summary 3

1. The EU tobacco sector is a major driver of jobs and tax revenue 4

1.1 Cigarettes and fine-cut are the leading tobacco products 4

1.2 The tobacco sector provides more than 600,000 jobs 5

1.3 At more than EUR 100 bn a year, taxes from cigarettes and fine-cut are a significant source of revenue for Member States 7

1.4 A sizeable and steadily growing illicit market equates to 10% of legal cigarette sales in the EU 8

2. Future EU tobacco regulation under the new TPD 9

3. Our approach to analyzing the impact of the new TPD 11

3.1 The economic rationale behind our modeling approach 11

3.2 Description of the quantitative model underlying our analysis 13

3.3 Assessing employment and tax revenue effects through

scenario-based forecasting 15

3.4 The data behind our quantitative model 17

4. How the new TPD will impact the economy 18

4.1 The new TPD will have a major impact on the EU tobacco sector 18

4.2 Significant losses in jobs and tax revenues are expected 21

5. Limitations of the quantitative analysis 25

6. Additional potential effects of the new TPD 27

7. Towards a "more economic approach" in tobacco regulation 29

8. Conclusion 31

Appendix 1 – Input data for the quantitative model 32

Appendix 2 – Concise model description and calibration strategy 34

Glossary 39

Endnotes 41

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